Navigating Private Credit Risks for Australian Retail Investors

Investment in private credit is not a contemporary innovation; its roots trace back to ancient times.

The evolution of direct lending, particularly in the UK, Europe, and the US, intensified across the 18th to the 20th centuries, serving as a crucial alternative during frequent banking crises.

The current surge in private lending originated in the 1990s amidst burgeoning internet startups, and was further propelled by tighter banking regulations and historically low interest rates post the Global Financial Crisis.

In recent years, an unprecedented stretch of low interest rates has catalyzed a global "chase for yield," bolstering private debt markets by reducing borrower default risks. However, the recent surge in cash rates, due to reemerging inflation, has sparked heightened stress within both public and private credit domains. Prominent private market firms like Blackstone, KKR, Carlyle, and Apollo have openly communicated these challenges, developing temporary fixes and innovative solutions to mitigate lending risks at times dubbed as "creditor-on-creditor violence."

Australia's private lending sphere appears somewhat isolated from global risks, partly due to stringent insolvency rules and conservative banking practices. Nevertheless, with global interest rate shifts and rising trade tensions, the assumption that Australian credit markets are exempt from these external pressures seems overly optimistic. ASIC chair Joe Longo has voiced concerns about the inherent "opacity, conflicts, valuation uncertainty, illiquidity and leverage" within global private debt, underscoring the necessity for Australia to heed these issues.

Australian superannuation funds, already experienced in infrastructure debt and equity, have followed international trends in corporate direct lending and venture capital. Despite advanced industry knowledge, the complexities of private market investments pose challenges even to these institutional players. This complexity accentuates the importance of implementing well-informed strategies for retail investors.

The ongoing consultation aims to equip retail investors with better understanding of both risks and opportunities in private debt investing. Key starting points include addressing the misleading notion that private debt investments are shielded from market volatility or failure to acknowledge the limitations of "internal credit ratings" compared to established agency ratings. Furthermore, the lack of portfolio diversification amplifies risks in Australia, emphasizing the need for strategic spread across geographies and industries.

Ensuring the Australian private debt market flourishes requires transparent communication and practical regulatory frameworks. Overcoming present challenges can expand the role of private debt in diverse investment portfolios, including for individual investors. Nevertheless, as ASIC highlights, unresolved current issues could stunt the market's maturation.

Published:Tuesday, 17th Jun 2025
Source: Paige Estritori

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Knowledgebase

Revolving Credit:
A type of credit that does not have a fixed number of payments, in contrast to installment credit.