Interest Rate Reductions Signal Potential Rebound for A-REITs

Investors in Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts (A-REITs) could witness a favourable shift in stock performance this year, thanks to declining inflation and interest rates rejuvenating the property market.

This is according to Amy Pham, a portfolio manager with Pengana’s High Conviction Property Securities Fund, who anticipates A-REIT earnings to rise between 3% and 5% throughout the current calendar year.

Pham emphasizes the defensive nature of A-REIT investments, which benefit from structured lease agreements and limited exposure to operational risks. Despite recent market volatility, the commencement of a new interest rate cycle has already generated increased investor optimism.

Key players in the sector, such as Mirvac and Stockland, have demonstrated positive sales growth even before the latest rate cut. This suggests a shift in momentum, particularly concerning the more affordable segments of the residential property market. Pham also highlights positive outlooks for land lease communities and retirement living developments.

While there are signs of recovery in the office property market, Pham advises caution. High vacancy rates and continued demand for incentives continue to challenge the sector's overall growth. However, she acknowledges an uptick in office transactions, indicating the potential bottoming out of the valuation cycle and providing clues to the real value of office properties.

Despite some indicators of improvement, Pengana maintains an underweight stance on office-related investments due to substantial incentives impacting free cash flow negatively. Nevertheless, Pham notes emerging "green shoots" in premium office spaces, particularly in Sydney, where the vacancy rate for high-end offices is significantly lower at 6% compared to the broader market's 15%.

As the situation evolves, investors remain cautiously optimistic about the potential for growth within the A-REIT sector, given the favourable factors at play.

Published:Tuesday, 3rd Jun 2025
Source: Paige Estritori

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Equity:
The value of an ownership interest in an asset or company, after all debts and liabilities are deducted.