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Recent analysis indicates that housing affordability in Australia has reached a critical low, with approximately 47% of a household's gross income now required to service a mortgage. Maree Kilroy, a senior economist at Oxford Economics Australia, emphasized the gravity of the situation, stating, “Housing affordability is currently at its worst level since 2008.”
As prices surged alongside elevated mortgage repayments, many buyers have been pushed towards lower-priced properties, altering the landscape of the housing market. The trend of rising prices has seen a shift, particularly as major cities like Melbourne and Sydney experience declines. As we head into 2025, the forecast remains grim.
The quarterly property survey from the Australian Financial Review has revealed a more measured optimism for the upcoming year, with property experts predicting a modest increase of 3% in residential home prices. This represents a decrease from an anticipated 4.9% rise in 2024, driven largely by a shared concern about dwindling affordability acting as a deterrent to growth.
Many analysts foresee a split scenario for 2025, expecting a dip in values at the year's start, followed by a rebound in the latter half as the RBA is likely to reduce interest rates. Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP, noted, “Lower interest rates should help from mid-year though to drive a renewed upswing, providing the economy stays out of recession and unemployment only rises to around 4.5%.”
However, not everyone is convinced of a rosy outlook. Jo Masters, chief economist at Barrenjoey, forecasted a continued decline in home values, especially in Sydney and Melbourne. “We expect prices have further to fall in Sydney and Melbourne and soften in other main capital cities over the next six months,” she asserted. Masters echoed concerns over auction clearance rates, indicating that they reflect the current weakness in the housing market.
The broader economic context is pivotal as well. The slowing of net overseas migration combined with recovering stock levels may cause a realignment of the historic relationship between mortgage rates and property values. This trend suggests that unless the RBA eases interest rates, home prices may persist in a downward trajectory, exacerbating the existing affordability crisis.
Experts suggest that the profound decoupling of home values from actual borrowing capacity presents a pressing dilemma for potential buyers. With household income growth lagging, the ability to access affordable housing continues to wane.
As we analyze these market dynamics, it’s clear that the interplay of interest rates, economic stability, and migration patterns will be crucial in shaping the future of the Australian housing market. Should the RBA act to lower rates earlier than projected, it could provide a much-needed lifeline to both buyers and the overall market, translating to improved affordability and access to homeownership.
Overall, understanding these developments is vital for all stakeholders in the property sector, as the path forward remains uncertain amidst an ever-evolving economic landscape. The information presented draws from the latest insights published in the Australian Financial Review.
Published:Tuesday, 7th Jan 2025
Source: Paige Estritori
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