Commonwealth Bank Adjusts Rate Cut Timeline Amidst Labor Market Trends
Commonwealth Bank Adjusts Rate Cut Timeline Amidst Labor Market Trends
7
The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.
As financial experts eagerly await the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) upcoming board meeting, the Commonwealth Bank (CBA) has shifted its forecast regarding the advent of the next rate cut.
Contrary to popular anticipation, the bank now predicts the rate cut will be delayed, posing less optimistic news for mortgage holders seeking financial reprieve.
The financial community widely expects the RBA to keep the cash rate stable during this session, a forecast deemed straightforward in light of the recent federal budget. However, CBA's latest insights suggest the easing cycle-initially anticipated to alleviate strained mortgage holders-will be postponed due to prevailing uncertainties surrounding inflation forecasts.
Gareth Aird, CBA's head of Australian economics, indicated that recent labor market data shows little motivation for the RBA to alter its policy direction. According to Aird, the current state of the labor market, characterized by a "loosening" at essential levels, supports a prediction that the RBA will maintain the cash rate unchanged.
"Both trend unemployment and underemployment are experiencing a gradual upward trajectory," Aird stated in the latest CBA Economics update. "Work hours are declining, and job advertisements show a discernible downward trend."
Highlighting these labor market dynamics, Aird elaborated, "Our expectation for a more significant loosening in the labor market, which varies from the RBA’s forecasts, is a principal reason why we foresee the commencement of an easing cycle in late 2024. Yet, given the persistent challenges with underlying inflation and the shrinking period to November, the likelihood of a delayed start to the easing cycle is increasing."
The economic slowdown was further highlighted by the first-quarter GDP data, which grew by a mere 0.1%. Over six months, the annualized GDP growth pace reduced to 0.8%. The RBA's current forecast places the average unemployment rate at 4.0% over the second quarter, consistent with recent predictions.
Aird noted, "Despite the bank’s non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment estimated at 4.3%, there remains significant uncertainty regarding these projections." Additionally, RBA Governor Michelle Bullock opined that the federal government’s $300 energy bill rebate is unlikely to either significantly mitigate or exacerbate inflation levels.
Aird supported this view, referencing earlier CBA economic predictions that the rebates might subtract two-thirds of a percentage point from the third quarter’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). "While this impact is noteworthy, the RBA is more focused on the core inflation dynamics, which excludes the effects of energy rebates," he remarked.
"Our perspective is that the mechanical reduction in headline inflation for Q3, due to rebates, will potentially lower short-term inflation expectations for households and businesses, helping stabilize wage expectations over 2024 and 2025," Aird added.
The RBA's accompanying statement to its board decision is expected to maintain a neutral stance. Despite the fluctuating dynamics and economic signals, Aird emphasized that predicting the exact timing for the commencement of an easing cycle remains inherently uncertain.
Published:Saturday, 15th Jun 2024 Source: Paige Estritori
Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.
The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CommBank) has reported a significant surge in online home loan applications, with figures showing a fivefold increase over the year leading up to September 2025. This trend underscores a growing preference among Australian borrowers for digital channels when seeking mortgage solutions. - read more
ANZ Bank has updated its forecasts for the Australian housing market, projecting faster house price growth and delaying expectations for interest rate cuts. The bank now anticipates capital city house prices will rise between 6% and 7% in 2024, followed by increases of 5% to 6% in 2025, and around 5% in 2026. These revised figures suggest a more robust housing market than previously expected. - read more
Recent data indicates a significant resurgence in property investor activity within the Australian mortgage market. In the three months leading up to June 2025, investors accounted for 38% of all new loans written for property purchases, marking the highest level in nearly eight years. This uptick is largely attributed to falling interest rates and persistently low rental vacancies, which have enhanced the attractiveness of property investments. - read more
Have you ever heard the term loan refinancing and wondered what it actually means? Simply put, refinancing a loan involves replacing your current loan with a new one, typically to take advantage of better terms, such as lower interest rates or different repayment conditions. - read more
When considering personal finance in Australia, personal loans are a handy resource for achieving various financial goals, from consolidating debt to funding a major purchase. Yet, it's essential to approach this financial tool with caution and understanding. Proper comparison of personal loans can be the difference between a financial stepping stone and a stumbling block. - read more
Embarking on a journey towards financial stability begins with the mastery of personal budgeting. It's the cornerstone of sound money management, where every dollar is allocated purposefully, paving the way for a future free from the shackles of financial stress. In this all-important first step, individuals learn the fine art of balancing their earnings with their expenditures, a fundamental skill for anyone looking to navigate their finances with confidence. - read more
Need Help Finding a Loan?
Find out now if you qualify and compare
rates, offers and options from multiple lenders - without a credit check!
All finance quotes are provided free (via our secure server) and without obligation. We respect
your
privacy.
Knowledgebase
Certificate of Deposit (CD): A savings certificate with a fixed maturity date and specified interest rate, typically higher than a standard savings account.
