Australia's Path Out of Recession: A Long Road Ahead

1

A significant contributor to this decline has been the household sector. By the second quarter of 2024, there was a notable 2.4% reduction in real per capita household consumption from its peak level.

Alarmingly, real per capita household disposable income experienced an even steeper drop, plunging by approximately 8%, as shown in national accounts data. This marks the largest recorded decrease in Australia’s history.

In its latest economic outlook, encapsulated in the Red Book for October, Westpac predicts a slow recovery process from this recession. They highlight the harsh fall in per capita disposable income, which their analysis pegs at a dramatic 10% drop.

According to Westpac, “The combined effect of rising income tax payments, higher interest and the surge in inflation has produced a 4.8% drop in aggregate terms since Sep 2021 and an eye-watering 10% plunge in per capita terms.”

Westpac draws a stark comparison to the early 1990s recession, stating, “That is about double the size of the decline seen during the recession in the early-1990s (when the average mortgage interest rate was 15% and the unemployment rate spiked 4ppts on its way to an eventual peak of over 11%).”

There is a slightly improving consumer mood, bolstered by tax cuts and other governmental aid, and an optimistic shift in expectations for interest rates. “The consumer mood has become considerably less bleak, buoyed on the one hand by the additional cash in hand as tax cuts and other support measures flow through, and on the other by turning expectations for interest rates.”

Commenting on consumer sentiment, Westpac notes, “The most striking sentiment shift over the last three months has again been around consumer expectations for interest rates. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Mortgage Rate Expectations Index fell by a third between July and October.”

Despite these modest shifts in consumer sentiment, Westpac cautions that full economic recovery may proceed at a gradual pace. “The medium-term recovery process looks likely to be a slow one,” they warn.

Factors contributing to this sluggish recovery include a gentle easing cycle by the Reserve Bank of Australia, the slow rebound of household disposable incomes, and reduced use of savings reserves accrued during the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, deceleration in population growth poses another challenge.

Ultimately, Westpac concludes that despite some encouraging developments, the path to consumer recovery remains extensive. “Despite some more promising signs, the consumer recovery still has a long way to go.”

These insights and forecasts, grounded in Westpac’s research and national data, highlight the complex road to recovery facing Australia today, encouraging consumers and policymakers alike to brace for a protracted economic landscape.

Published:Friday, 1st Nov 2024
Source: Paige Estritori

Share this news item:

Finance News

Australia's Path Out of Recession: A Long Road Ahead 01 Nov 2024: Paige Estritori Australia is currently navigating its way out of what has been called the longest recession on record. The nation has seen six consecutive quarters of declining per capita gross domestic product, indicating a sustained period of economic downturn. - read more

Scam Reports Hit New Highs: Are We Doing Enough? 31 Oct 2024: Paige Estritori A surge in scam reports has highlighted ongoing challenges as Australians continued to lose significant sums to fraudulent schemes. Despite efforts to combat scams, reports to the national complaints authority reached unprecedented levels in 2023/24. - read more

Pressure Mounts for RBA Rate Cuts Amid Election Concerns 31 Oct 2024: Paige Estritori As Australia approaches the upcoming federal election, scheduled for May 2025, recent polls suggest the possibility of a hung parliament. Voters continue to express mounting concerns over the cost of living, as household disposable incomes fall to record lows. The loudest cries for financial relief come from mortgage holders, who have been particularly affected. - read more