Australia's Path Out of Recession: A Long Road Ahead

1

A significant contributor to this decline has been the household sector. By the second quarter of 2024, there was a notable 2.4% reduction in real per capita household consumption from its peak level.

Alarmingly, real per capita household disposable income experienced an even steeper drop, plunging by approximately 8%, as shown in national accounts data. This marks the largest recorded decrease in Australia’s history.

In its latest economic outlook, encapsulated in the Red Book for October, Westpac predicts a slow recovery process from this recession. They highlight the harsh fall in per capita disposable income, which their analysis pegs at a dramatic 10% drop.

According to Westpac, “The combined effect of rising income tax payments, higher interest and the surge in inflation has produced a 4.8% drop in aggregate terms since Sep 2021 and an eye-watering 10% plunge in per capita terms.”

Westpac draws a stark comparison to the early 1990s recession, stating, “That is about double the size of the decline seen during the recession in the early-1990s (when the average mortgage interest rate was 15% and the unemployment rate spiked 4ppts on its way to an eventual peak of over 11%).”

There is a slightly improving consumer mood, bolstered by tax cuts and other governmental aid, and an optimistic shift in expectations for interest rates. “The consumer mood has become considerably less bleak, buoyed on the one hand by the additional cash in hand as tax cuts and other support measures flow through, and on the other by turning expectations for interest rates.”

Commenting on consumer sentiment, Westpac notes, “The most striking sentiment shift over the last three months has again been around consumer expectations for interest rates. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Mortgage Rate Expectations Index fell by a third between July and October.”

Despite these modest shifts in consumer sentiment, Westpac cautions that full economic recovery may proceed at a gradual pace. “The medium-term recovery process looks likely to be a slow one,” they warn.

Factors contributing to this sluggish recovery include a gentle easing cycle by the Reserve Bank of Australia, the slow rebound of household disposable incomes, and reduced use of savings reserves accrued during the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, deceleration in population growth poses another challenge.

Ultimately, Westpac concludes that despite some encouraging developments, the path to consumer recovery remains extensive. “Despite some more promising signs, the consumer recovery still has a long way to go.”

These insights and forecasts, grounded in Westpac’s research and national data, highlight the complex road to recovery facing Australia today, encouraging consumers and policymakers alike to brace for a protracted economic landscape.

Published:Friday, 1st Nov 2024
Source: Paige Estritori

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

RBA to Continue Interest Rate Cuts Amid High Unemployment 08 Jul 2025: Paige Estritori The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is anticipated to maintain its trajectory of incremental interest rate reductions, according to insights from leading financial analysts at ANZ. Recent data from the ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads series revealed a rise from 114.8 in May to 116.9 in June, suggesting a potential rebound in job advertisements after previous declines. Despite a stable unemployment rate and hours-based underutilisation rate since mid-2024, the Australian labour market remains strained. - read more

RBA Poised for Cash Rate Cut Amid Inflationary Trends 07 Jul 2025: Paige Estritori As the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prepares for its forthcoming monetary policy announcement, economic analysts anticipate a further reduction in the official cash rate by 25 basis points. This prediction, supported by Finder’s RBA Cash Rate Survey, reveals that 88% of participating experts foresee a cut that would lower the interest rate to 3.6%, aligning the decision with the recent decline in both headline and core inflation to the central bank's target range of two to three percent. - read more

Uncovering the Impact of Unsolicited Solar Sales on Consumers 04 Jul 2025: Paige Estritori In a concerning revelation, Australian retiree Christine Hirchfield shares her ordeal with an unsolicited solar installation that turned into a financial nightmare. Despite her initial enthusiasm for cheaper energy bills and a greener home, the project remains incomplete more than a year later. Consumer groups are now advocating for a nationwide prohibition on deceptive sales practices that target vulnerable consumers like Ms Hirchfield. - read more